Exeter City vs Lincoln – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Exeter City's attack rating (0.82) and Lincoln's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Exeter City's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.19
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Exeter City xG
Total xG
1.94
0.92
Lincoln xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Exeter City and 0.92 for Lincoln, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.