Exeter City 1-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Exeter City at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Exeter City vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Exeter City host Charlton at St James Park in League One, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Exeter City — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Exeter City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Exeter City have posted 5W 2D 3L at St James Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St James Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Exeter City have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Charlton have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Exeter City.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Charlton have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Exeter City in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Charlton in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 40% versus Charlton 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 43% | Charlton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.23 xG and Charlton 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.852 / defence 0.929 | Charlton attack 0.959 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.188. Data: 58 Exeter City games / 59 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 40% | Draw 28% | Charlton 32%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Charlton 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Charlton lead the H2H ledger, but Exeter City carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Exeter City as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Exeter City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Exeter City 50% | Charlton 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 40% | Draw 28% | Charlton 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Exeter City 1.23 / Charlton 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.852 / def 0.929 | Charlton attack 0.959 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Charlton xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs Charlton kick off?
Exeter City vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Charlton?
Exeter City 1 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Exeter City vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Charlton part of?
Exeter City vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 40% chance of winning, Charlton a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Exeter City and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Charlton?
Record (4 meetings): Exeter City 0W | Draws 1 | Charlton 3W.
What form are Exeter City and Charlton in?
Exeter City (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Charlton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Exeter City vs Charlton?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Exeter City's attack rating (0.85) and Charlton's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Exeter City's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.53
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.29
1.06
Charlton xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
9%
10.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.06 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Exeter City's recent record stands at 23W 11D 24L from 58 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Exeter City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 15W 24D 19L across 58 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Exeter City on 1.38 PPG, Charlton on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Exeter City have managed 10W 8D 10L from 28 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 5W 13D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Exeter City are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.34 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 69%.
Last 58 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and Charlton in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 23W 11D 24L in their last 58 games (1.38 PPG), while Charlton have gone 15W 24D 19L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Charlton away?
Exeter City's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.36 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Charlton in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2023, when Charlton won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Exeter City's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Exeter City
1
Draws
4
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 1, Charlton have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Charlton 3-0 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 39%, Charlton 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Exeter City) and 39% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Exeter City have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Exeter City's recent matches and 68% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Exeter City vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Exeter City's recent games and 39% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Charlton tend to score early?
Exeter City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Charlton in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Exeter City edge out Charlton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Exeter City beat Charlton 1-0 at St James Park, Regular Season - 15, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.23 xG and Charlton 1.06 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charlton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.85 / defence 0.93 against Charlton attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 40% | Draw 28% | Charlton 32%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 43%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.38 PPG, Charlton 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Exeter City win broke the near-deadlock. Exeter City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.