Exeter City 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Charlton at 39% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Exeter City vs Charlton encounter.

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Match Analysis

Exeter City host Charlton at St James Park in League One (matchday 41). Kick-off is Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Exeter City — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Exeter City have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Charlton stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Charlton have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Exeter City at 1.40 PPG versus Charlton's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

Charlton have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Exeter City. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2023, ended Exeter City 1–4 Charlton — a Charlton win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Charlton have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Exeter City in-play and half-time data (last 85 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Charlton in-play and half-time data (last 85 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 44% versus Charlton 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 46% | Charlton 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.05 xG and Charlton 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.722 / defence 0.919 | Charlton attack 1.086 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.185. Exeter City's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Exeter City's last 85 games and Charlton's last 85.

Result probabilities: Exeter City 32% | Draw 29% | Charlton 39%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 3.09 | Draw 3.47 | Charlton 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Charlton 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Exeter City 40% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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