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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bradford defy the odds to beat Exeter City 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Exeter City 1-2 at St James Park, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.48 xG and Bradford 1.25 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.91 / defence 1.18 against Bradford attack 0.90 / defence 1.19, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Exeter City 42% | Draw 25% | Bradford 32%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bradford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 45%, Bradford 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Exeter City's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Bradford's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights