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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Exeter City run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Blackpool.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Exeter City beat Blackpool 4-1 at St James Park, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.23 xG and Blackpool 1.37 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Exeter City beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Blackpool attack 1.13 / defence 0.93, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Exeter City 33% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 40%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Exeter City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 45%, Blackpool 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Exeter City's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Blackpool's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.19 PPG, Blackpool 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Exeter City win broke the near-deadlock. Exeter City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Blackpool (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights