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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Blackpool cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Exeter City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Blackpool beat Exeter City 1-3 at St James Park, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.38 xG and Blackpool 1.53 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Blackpool outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 1.05 / defence 1.20 against Blackpool attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Exeter City 34% | Draw 25% | Blackpool 41%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 45%, Blackpool 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Exeter City's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Blackpool's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.27 PPG, Blackpool 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackpool win broke the near-deadlock. Exeter City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Blackpool (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights