🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Doncaster and Wigan share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Doncaster and Wigan drew 3-3 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.01 xG and Wigan 1.56 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Doncaster beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wigan outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.81 / defence 1.46 against Wigan attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 25/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 24% | Draw 25% | Wigan 50%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 52%, Wigan 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Wigan's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Doncaster 1.55 PPG, Wigan 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Doncaster (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.49 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights