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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Doncaster edge out Port Vale 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Port Vale 1-0 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.52 xG and Port Vale 1.21 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Port Vale landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.87 / defence 1.32 against Port Vale attack 0.79 / defence 1.23, drawn from 38/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 45% | Draw 25% | Port Vale 30%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 52%, Port Vale 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Port Vale's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Doncaster 1.56 PPG, Port Vale 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Doncaster win broke the near-deadlock. Doncaster (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights