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Prediction vindicated as Doncaster edge out Peterborough 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Peterborough 2-1 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.32 xG and Peterborough 1.24 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.89 / defence 1.22 against Peterborough attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 17/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 39% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 35%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 52%, Peterborough 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Peterborough's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights