🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Northampton defy the odds to beat Doncaster 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Northampton beat Doncaster 1-2 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.23 xG and Northampton 0.84 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Northampton outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Northampton attack 0.73 / defence 0.99, drawn from 12/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 45% | Draw 29% | Northampton 25%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Northampton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 51%, Northampton 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Northampton's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Northampton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Doncaster (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights