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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Doncaster edge out Exeter City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Exeter City 1-0 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.21 xG and Exeter City 1.20 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Exeter City landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Exeter City attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 0/46 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 36% | Draw 28% | Exeter City 36%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 54%, Exeter City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Exeter City's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Doncaster (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights