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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cardiff run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Doncaster.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Doncaster 0-4 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.53 xG and Cardiff 1.66 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Doncaster fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cardiff outscored their 1.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.95 / defence 1.24 against Cardiff attack 1.17 / defence 1.13, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 36% | Draw 23% | Cardiff 41%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 54%, Cardiff 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Cardiff's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Doncaster 1.58 PPG, Cardiff 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Doncaster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights