🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Doncaster and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster and Burton Albion finished level at 1-1 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.06 xG and Burton Albion 1.02 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Burton Albion attack 0.89 / defence 0.86, drawn from 10/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 36% | Draw 30% | Burton Albion 34%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 51%, Burton Albion 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Burton Albion's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights