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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Doncaster cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bradford.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Bradford 3-1 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.02 xG and Bradford 0.86 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Doncaster beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.82 / defence 0.93 against Bradford attack 0.90 / defence 0.93, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 38% | Draw 32% | Bradford 30%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 50%, Bradford 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Bradford's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Doncaster 1.87 PPG, Bradford 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Doncaster win broke the near-deadlock. Doncaster (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Bradford (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights