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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Doncaster and Bolton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster and Bolton finished level at 1-1 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.03 xG and Bolton 1.49 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.80 / defence 1.49 against Bolton attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 23/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 26% | Draw 26% | Bolton 48%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 53%, Bolton 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Bolton's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Doncaster 1.51 PPG, Bolton 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights