Derby 2-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 49%, yet in-form Peterborough provide a compelling counter-argument — this Derby vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 6 as Derby welcome Peterborough to Pride Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Derby have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Peterborough have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Peterborough have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Peterborough's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Derby's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Derby, 1 for Peterborough and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Derby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 47% versus Peterborough 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 37% | Peterborough 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.58 xG and Peterborough 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.926 / defence 1.028 | Peterborough attack 0.963 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.075. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Derby games / 5 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 49% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 25%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Peterborough 4.00. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Peterborough (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Derby 50% | Peterborough 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 49% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Derby 1.58 / Peterborough 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.926 / def 1.028 | Peterborough attack 0.963 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Derby (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Peterborough xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Peterborough kick off?
Derby vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Peterborough?
Derby 2 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Derby vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Peterborough part of?
Derby vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 49% chance of winning, Peterborough a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Derby and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Peterborough?
Record (2 meetings): Derby 1W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 1W.
What form are Derby and Peterborough in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Peterborough (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Derby's attack rating (0.93) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.74
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Derby xG
Total xG
2.65
1.06
Peterborough xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
5%
19.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Derby and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Derby and 1.06 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby come into this having played 51 games, going 16W 15D 20L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 0.96 PPG from 51 outings (13W 10D 28L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.24 PPG, Peterborough on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Derby's home form reads 13W 7D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 0.60 points per game from 25 outings (4W 3D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.08 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
Peterborough
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 16W 15D 20L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 13W 10D 28L in their last 51 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Peterborough away?
Derby's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.84 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Derby or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Peterborough in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Peterborough runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
0
Draws
3
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Peterborough?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Peterborough have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2024, when Derby 2-3 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 56%, Peterborough 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Derby) and 64% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Peterborough in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Derby's recent matches and 40% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Derby's recent games and 64% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Peterborough tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Peterborough 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Peterborough 2-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.58 xG and Peterborough 1.06 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Peterborough attack 0.96 / defence 1.27, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 49% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 25%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 37%, Peterborough 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Peterborough's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.24 PPG, Peterborough 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.