Derby 0-0 Exeter City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Exeter City at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Exeter City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Exeter City at Pride Park Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 25 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 6W 0D 4L at Pride Park Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Exeter City stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Exeter City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Exeter City have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Derby) versus 1.40 (Exeter City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Exeter City in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Exeter City 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 41% | Exeter City 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.57 xG and Exeter City 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.026 / defence 1.164 | Exeter City attack 1.145 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.232. Data: 13 Derby games / 15 Exeter City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 37% | Draw 23% | Exeter City 40%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Exeter City 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Exeter City at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Exeter City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derby 70% | Exeter City 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Exeter City | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 37% | Draw 23% | Exeter City 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Derby 1.57 / Exeter City 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.026 / def 1.164 | Exeter City attack 1.145 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Exeter City xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Exeter City kick off?
Derby vs Exeter City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 25 October 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Exeter City?
Derby 0 - 0 Exeter City.
Where is Derby vs Exeter City being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Exeter City part of?
Derby vs Exeter City is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Exeter City?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 37% chance of winning, Exeter City a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Exeter City?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Derby and Exeter City will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Exeter City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Exeter City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and Exeter City in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Exeter City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Derby's attack rating (1.03) and Exeter City's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Exeter City's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
37%
2.72
23%
4.28
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Derby xG
Total xG
3.21
1.64
Exeter City xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
7%
14.07
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Exeter City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Derby and Exeter City expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Derby and 1.64 for Exeter City, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Exeter City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby's recent record stands at 20W 15D 24L from 59 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Exeter City, meanwhile, have gone 29W 17D 13L across 59 games — 1.76 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Exeter City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Exeter City by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Derby heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derby have managed 15W 7D 7L from 29 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Exeter City's away record stands at 11W 11D 7L across 29 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Exeter City are on 1.54 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Exeter City in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Exeter City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Exeter City in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 20W 15D 24L in their last 59 games (1.27 PPG), while Exeter City have gone 29W 17D 13L in their last 59 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Exeter City away?
Derby's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.79 PPG; Exeter City away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Derby or Exeter City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Exeter City in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Derby go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2024, when Derby won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derby's record when hosting Exeter City specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
0
Exeter City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Exeter City?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Exeter City have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Exeter City last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when Exeter City 0-3 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Exeter City?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 62%, Exeter City 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Derby) and 41% (Exeter City).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Exeter City in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Exeter City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Exeter City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Derby's games and 55% of Exeter City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Exeter City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Derby's recent games and 41% of Exeter City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Exeter City tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Exeter City in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Derby's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby and Exeter City finished level at 0-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.57 xG and Exeter City 1.64 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Derby fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Exeter City landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.03 / defence 1.16 against Exeter City attack 1.15 / defence 1.18, drawn from 13/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 37% | Draw 23% | Exeter City 40%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 41%, Exeter City 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Exeter City's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Exeter City arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.