Derby 0-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Cambridge United travel to Pride Park Stadium to take on Derby. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pride Park Stadium, Derby have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Cambridge United have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.40 PPG, Cambridge United 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Derby, 0 for Cambridge United and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 1–0 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus Cambridge United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 46% | Cambridge United 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.39 xG and Cambridge United 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.961 / defence 0.957 | Cambridge United attack 0.844 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.134. Data: 54 Derby games / 54 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 47% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 24%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Cambridge United 4.17. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Derby 60% | Cambridge United 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 47% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Derby 1.39 / Cambridge United 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.961 / def 0.957 | Cambridge United attack 0.844 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Derby (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Cambridge United xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Cambridge United kick off?
Derby vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Cambridge United?
Derby 0 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Derby vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Cambridge United part of?
Derby vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 47% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Derby and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cambridge United?
Record (2 meetings): Derby 2W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 0W.
What form are Derby and Cambridge United in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.96x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.52
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Derby xG
Total xG
2.30
0.92
Cambridge United xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
6%
16.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Derby and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Derby and 0.92 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby's recent record stands at 25W 14D 15L from 54 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambridge United, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 29L across 54 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambridge United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Derby have managed 13W 7D 6L from 26 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambridge United's away record stands at 5W 3D 18L across 26 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cambridge United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.94 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 25W 14D 15L in their last 54 games (1.65 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 17W 8D 29L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Cambridge United away?
Derby's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.77 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Derby or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Cambridge United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
0
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cambridge United?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Cambridge United have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Cambridge United 0-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Cambridge United?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 54%, Cambridge United 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derby) and 46% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cambridge United in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Derby's recent matches and 46% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derby's recent games and 46% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Derby's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby and Cambridge United finished level at 0-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.39 xG and Cambridge United 0.92 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Derby fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cambridge United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Cambridge United attack 0.84 / defence 1.15, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 47% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 24%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 46%, Cambridge United 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cambridge United's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.