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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crawley Town and Wycombe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 32, as Crawley Town and Wycombe drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.30 xG and Wycombe 2.19 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Wycombe landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.02 / defence 1.27 against Wycombe attack 1.47 / defence 0.98, drawn from 29/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 22% | Draw 21% | Wycombe 57%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 57%, Wycombe 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Wycombe's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.32 PPG, Wycombe 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights