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Poisson model rates Wigan at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Wigan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 26 as Crawley Town welcome Wigan to Broadfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 18 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Wigan — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Wigan's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 0.90 PPG versus Wigan's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Crawley Town, 1 for Wigan and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Wigan winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Wigan in-play and half-time data (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 55% versus Wigan 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 57% | Wigan 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.03 xG and Wigan 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.983 / defence 1.168 | Wigan attack 0.889 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.195. Wigan's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 30 Crawley Town games / 75 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 30% | Draw 30% | Wigan 40%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Wigan 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 60% | Wigan 30% BTTS from recent games.

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