🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Crawley Town and Reading share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 36, as Crawley Town and Reading drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.30 xG and Reading 1.44 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.90 / defence 1.24 against Reading attack 1.01 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 33% | Draw 27% | Reading 40%, with Reading to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Reading 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Reading's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.26 PPG, Reading 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reading (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights