🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough beat Crawley Town 3-4 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.21 xG and Peterborough 1.18 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Peterborough outscored their 1.18 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.79 / defence 1.15 against Peterborough attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 39/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 36% | Draw 29% | Peterborough 35%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Peterborough 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Peterborough's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.29 PPG, Peterborough 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights