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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leyton Orient cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leyton Orient beat Crawley Town 1-3 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.18 xG and Leyton Orient 1.87 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Leyton Orient outscored their 1.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.33 against Leyton Orient attack 1.24 / defence 1.04, drawn from 41/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 24% | Draw 23% | Leyton Orient 54%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Leyton Orient 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Leyton Orient's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.24 PPG, Leyton Orient 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leyton Orient win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights