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Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Bristol Rovers 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town beat Bristol Rovers 1-0 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.50 xG and Bristol Rovers 0.79 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against Bristol Rovers attack 0.59 / defence 1.46, drawn from 37/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 54% | Draw 27% | Bristol Rovers 19%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Bristol Rovers 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.23 PPG, Bristol Rovers 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights