Crawley Town 2-1 Blackpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Blackpool at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Blackpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crawley Town and Blackpool meet at Broadfield Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Crawley Town haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Blackpool's overall League One record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Blackpool haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Blackpool's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Blackpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 59% versus Blackpool 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 59% | Blackpool 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.12 xG and Blackpool 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Blackpool attack 0.933 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.223. Data: 0 Crawley Town games / 46 Blackpool games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 32% | Draw 27% | Blackpool 41%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Blackpool 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Blackpool as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Blackpool if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 50% | Blackpool 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Blackpool | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 32% | Draw 27% | Blackpool 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Crawley Town 1.12 / Blackpool 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Blackpool attack 0.933 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Blackpool (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Blackpool xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Blackpool kick off?
Crawley Town vs Blackpool kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Blackpool?
Crawley Town 2 - 1 Blackpool.
Where is Crawley Town vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Blackpool part of?
Crawley Town vs Blackpool is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 32% chance of winning, Blackpool a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Blackpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crawley Town and Blackpool will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Blackpool?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Blackpool in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Crawley Town (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Crawley Town's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Blackpool's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Blackpool's attack (0.93x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 0/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackpool Win
32%
3.15
27%
3.67
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.43
1.31
Blackpool xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
9%
11.72
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.31 for Blackpool, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Blackpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 22W 6D 18L from 46 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. Crawley Town haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Blackpool, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 15L across 46 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. Blackpool haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.59 for Blackpool. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 11W 3D 9L from 23 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackpool's away record stands at 7W 4D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Blackpool's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.41 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Blackpool in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Pre-Season
Blackpool
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Blackpool in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 22W 6D 18L in their last 46 games (1.57 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 21W 10D 15L in their last 46 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Blackpool away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.57 PPG; Blackpool away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Blackpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Blackpool in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
0
Draws
1
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Blackpool?
From 2 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Blackpool have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Blackpool last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Blackpool 3-1 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 61%, Blackpool 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Crawley Town) and 39% (Blackpool).
On the defensive side: Blackpool in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Blackpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 30% of Blackpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Blackpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Crawley Town's recent games and 39% of Blackpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Blackpool tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Blackpool in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Blackpool 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Blackpool 2-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.12 xG and Blackpool 1.31 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Blackpool attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 0/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 32% | Draw 27% | Blackpool 41%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 59%, Blackpool 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Blackpool's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.57 PPG, Blackpool 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.