🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Birmingham at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Birmingham encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Crawley Town and Birmingham meet at Broadfield Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 December 2024 at 20:00 UTC.

Current Form

Crawley Town's overall League One record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Crawley Town at Broadfield Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Birmingham have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Birmingham have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Birmingham arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Trading & In-Play

Crawley Town — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Birmingham — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 55% versus Birmingham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 58% | Birmingham 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.28 xG and Birmingham 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.964 / defence 1.314 | Birmingham attack 1.201 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.171. Birmingham have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Crawley Town games / 18 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 26% | Draw 23% | Birmingham 50%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Birmingham 2.00. Birmingham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Birmingham are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Birmingham if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 40% | Birmingham 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights