🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Wycombe 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Wycombe 1-0 at The Valley, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.35 xG and Wycombe 1.03 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wycombe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.27 / defence 0.78 against Wycombe attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 44% | Draw 29% | Wycombe 28%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 52%, Wycombe 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (93 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Wycombe's trading profile (93 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.49 PPG, Wycombe 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.02 average — tighter than their form line. Wycombe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights