Charlton 2-0 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Fleetwood Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 29 as Charlton welcome Fleetwood Town to The Valley. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at The Valley this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fleetwood Town stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charlton at 1.40 PPG versus Fleetwood Town's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Charlton have won 1, Fleetwood Town 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Charlton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Fleetwood Town trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 56% and Fleetwood Town 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 48% | Fleetwood Town 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.69 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.041 / defence 1.009 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.870 / defence 1.443. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.236. Fleetwood Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.443 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Charlton games / 25 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 51% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 24%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Fleetwood Town 4.17. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 50% | Fleetwood Town 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 51% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Charlton 1.69 / Fleetwood Town 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.041 / def 1.009 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.870 / def 1.443 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Charlton (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Fleetwood Town xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Charlton vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Fleetwood Town?
Charlton 2 - 0 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Charlton vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Charlton vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 51% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Charlton and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Fleetwood Town?
Record (1 meetings): Charlton 1W | Draws 0 | Fleetwood Town 0W.
What form are Charlton and Fleetwood Town in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charlton's attack rating (1.04) and Fleetwood Town's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.89
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.77
1.08
Fleetwood Town xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
4%
22.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Charlton and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Charlton and 1.08 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 8W 5D 12L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fleetwood Town's form line: 7W 7D 11L from 25 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Fleetwood Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.16 PPG, Fleetwood Town on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L).
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 2W 5D 5L from 12 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.52 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town in 64%.
Last 25 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Fleetwood Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 8W 5D 12L in their last 25 games (1.16 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Charlton's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.42 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Fleetwood Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Fleetwood Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 3, Fleetwood Town have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Fleetwood Town 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Fleetwood Town?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 42%, Fleetwood Town 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Charlton) and 67% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Fleetwood Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Charlton's games and 75% of Fleetwood Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Charlton's recent games and 67% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fleetwood Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Fleetwood Town 2-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.69 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.08 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fleetwood Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.87 / defence 1.44, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 51% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 24%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 48%, Fleetwood Town 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.16 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.