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Poisson model rates Charlton at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Charlton host Crawley Town at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 3 December 2024 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Charlton — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charlton at 0.90 PPG versus Crawley Town's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Trading Patterns

Charlton in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 66% versus Crawley Town 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | Crawley Town 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.46 xG and Crawley Town 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.988 / defence 0.969 | Crawley Town attack 0.568 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.123. Data: 62 Charlton games / 17 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charlton 58% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 16%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Crawley Town 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Crawley Town's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 70% | Crawley Town 40%.

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