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Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Cambridge United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Cambridge United 2-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.45 xG and Cambridge United 0.92 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Cambridge United attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 50% | Draw 27% | Cambridge United 24%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, Cambridge United 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Cambridge United's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.21 PPG, Cambridge United 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights