Charlton 2-0 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Bolton travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charlton's home record at The Valley: 3W 5D 2L from 10 League One appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bolton — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bolton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bolton have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charlton at 1.50 PPG versus Bolton's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charlton register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bolton in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bolton, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Charlton.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bolton have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Bolton trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 71% and Bolton 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 50% | Bolton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.23 xG and Bolton 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.012 / defence 0.882 | Bolton attack 1.120 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.221. Data: 48 Charlton games / 48 Bolton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Charlton 37% | Draw 27% | Bolton 36%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Bolton 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 60% | Bolton 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (48 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 37% | Draw 27% | Bolton 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Charlton 1.23 / Bolton 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.012 / def 0.882 | Bolton attack 1.120 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Charlton (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Bolton xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Bolton kick off?
Charlton vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Bolton?
Charlton 2 - 0 Bolton.
Where is Charlton vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Bolton part of?
Charlton vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 37% chance of winning, Bolton a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charlton and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bolton?
Record (6 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 1 | Bolton 5W.
What form are Charlton and Bolton in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Bolton (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charlton's attack rating (1.01) and Bolton's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (48/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
37%
2.71
27%
3.65
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.44
1.21
Bolton xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Charlton and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Charlton and 1.21 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton's recent record stands at 13W 20D 15L from 48 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bolton, meanwhile, have gone 24W 13D 11L across 48 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bolton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bolton by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charlton heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 9W 8D 7L from 24 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bolton's away record stands at 11W 7D 6L across 24 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.75 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Bolton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Bolton in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 13W 20D 15L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Bolton have gone 24W 13D 11L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Bolton away?
Bolton's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.46 PPG; Bolton away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Charlton or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Bolton in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Bolton runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when Bolton won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charlton's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Charlton
1
Draws
5
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bolton?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Bolton have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2025, when Bolton 1-2 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bolton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 71%, Bolton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Charlton) and 42% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Bolton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Bolton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Charlton's games and 50% of Bolton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Charlton's recent games and 42% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Bolton tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bolton in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bolton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Bolton 2-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 3, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.23 xG and Bolton 1.21 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bolton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.01 / defence 0.88 against Bolton attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 37% | Draw 27% | Bolton 36%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 50%, Bolton 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Bolton's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Charlton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.