Carlisle 0-1 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Carlisle face Cheltenham.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Carlisle welcome Cheltenham to Brunton Park in League One (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Carlisle have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Carlisle's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cheltenham stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Cheltenham have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Carlisle) versus 1.20 (Cheltenham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Carlisle in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cheltenham in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 46% versus Cheltenham 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 38% | Cheltenham 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.07 xG and Cheltenham 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.743 / defence 1.158 | Cheltenham attack 0.835 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.155. Carlisle's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from Carlisle's last 21 games and Cheltenham's last 66.
Result probabilities: Carlisle 33% | Draw 32% | Cheltenham 35%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 3.02 | Draw 3.17 | Cheltenham 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cheltenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Carlisle's last 10 home games and Cheltenham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Carlisle 50% (last 10 home games) | Cheltenham 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, matchday 23 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 33% | Draw 32% | Cheltenham 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Carlisle 1.07 / Cheltenham 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.743 / def 1.158 | Cheltenham attack 0.835 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Cheltenham xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Carlisle vs Cheltenham FAQs
What time does Carlisle vs Cheltenham kick off?
Carlisle vs Cheltenham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Cheltenham?
Carlisle 0 - 1 Cheltenham.
Where is Carlisle vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Cheltenham part of?
Carlisle vs Cheltenham is a League One fixture (matchday 23) (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 33% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Carlisle and Cheltenham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Carlisle vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Carlisle's attack at 0.74x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cheltenham's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Carlisle's last 21 games and Cheltenham's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
33%
3.02
32%
3.17
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.19
1.12
Cheltenham xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Carlisle vs Cheltenham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.12 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Carlisle's recent record stands at 23W 22D 21L from 66 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Cheltenham, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 33L across 66 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carlisle on 1.38 PPG, Cheltenham on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Carlisle have managed 12W 13D 8L from their last 33 home games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cheltenham's away record stands at 7W 6D 20L across their last 33 away games, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carlisle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Carlisle are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 0.86 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Cheltenham
Blended
Carlisle (Home) vs Cheltenham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Carlisle
Blended
Cheltenham
Blended
❓ Carlisle vs Cheltenham Form FAQs
What form are Carlisle and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 23W 22D 21L in their last 66 games (1.38 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 17W 16D 33L in their last 66 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Cheltenham away?
Carlisle's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.48 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Cheltenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cheltenham in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Cheltenham have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Carlisle's record when hosting Cheltenham specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carlisle
0
Draws
3
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Carlisle vs Cheltenham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Cheltenham?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Carlisle have won 1, Cheltenham have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Cheltenham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2025: Cheltenham 3-2 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Cheltenham?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 48%, Cheltenham 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Carlisle) and 46% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Carlisle have failed to score in 30% of games; Cheltenham in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Carlisle vs Cheltenham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Carlisle and Cheltenham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Carlisle's recent matches and 33% of Cheltenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Carlisle and Cheltenham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Carlisle's recent games and 46% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Cheltenham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Carlisle's recent matches and 64% of Cheltenham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cheltenham edge out Carlisle 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham beat Carlisle 0-1 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 23, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.07 xG and Cheltenham 1.12 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Carlisle fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.74 / defence 1.16 against Cheltenham attack 0.83 / defence 1.06, drawn from 21/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 33% | Draw 32% | Cheltenham 35%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 38%, Cheltenham 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cheltenham's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.38 PPG, Cheltenham 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Cheltenham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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