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Wycombe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cardiff.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wycombe beat Cardiff 0-2 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.81 xG and Wycombe 1.05 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cardiff fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Wycombe outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.30 / defence 1.03 against Wycombe attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 37/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 55% | Draw 23% | Wycombe 22%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Wycombe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 51%, Wycombe 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Wycombe's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.45 PPG, Wycombe 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wycombe win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wycombe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights