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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cardiff edge out Wigan 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Wigan 1-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.86 xG and Wigan 1.40 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Wigan landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.42 / defence 1.17 against Wigan attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 23/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 48% | Draw 23% | Wigan 29%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 48%, Wigan 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Wigan's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.33 PPG, Wigan 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights