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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cardiff edge out Stevenage 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Stevenage 2-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.42 xG and Stevenage 1.26 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.42 / defence 1.18 against Stevenage attack 0.93 / defence 0.74, drawn from 21/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 41% | Draw 26% | Stevenage 33%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 48%, Stevenage 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Stevenage's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.33 PPG, Stevenage 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights