🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Lincoln cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cardiff.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lincoln beat Cardiff 0-2 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.58 xG and Lincoln 1.46 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cardiff fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.37 / defence 0.99 against Lincoln attack 1.28 / defence 0.81, drawn from 34/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 41% | Draw 24% | Lincoln 35%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Lincoln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 51%, Lincoln 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Lincoln's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.45 PPG, Lincoln 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lincoln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights