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Prediction vindicated as Cardiff edge out Leyton Orient 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Leyton Orient 4-3 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.78 xG and Leyton Orient 1.36 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Cardiff beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Leyton Orient outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.03 / defence 1.08 against Leyton Orient attack 1.12 / defence 1.27, drawn from 10/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 47% | Draw 23% | Leyton Orient 29%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 43%, Leyton Orient 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Leyton Orient's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Leyton Orient arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Cardiff winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights