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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cardiff edge out Exeter City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Exeter City 1-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.89 xG and Exeter City 1.09 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Exeter City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.49 / defence 1.27 against Exeter City attack 0.74 / defence 0.98, drawn from 20/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 56% | Draw 22% | Exeter City 22%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 48%, Exeter City 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Exeter City's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.29 PPG, Exeter City 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights