🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Cardiff edge out Doncaster 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Doncaster 4-3 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 2.13 xG and Doncaster 0.84 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Cardiff beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Doncaster outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.41 / defence 1.15 against Doncaster attack 0.67 / defence 1.22, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 67% | Draw 19% | Doncaster 14%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 47%, Doncaster 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Doncaster's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.28 PPG, Doncaster 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Doncaster (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights