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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bradford cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cardiff.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Cardiff 1-3 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.94 xG and Bradford 0.86 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Cardiff fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bradford outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.22 / defence 0.90 against Bradford attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 63% | Draw 21% | Bradford 16%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Bradford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 43%, Bradford 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Bradford's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Cardiff (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights