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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cardiff run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Barnsley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Barnsley 4-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 2.07 xG and Barnsley 1.25 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cardiff beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Barnsley landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.26 / defence 1.06 against Barnsley attack 1.07 / defence 1.20, drawn from 27/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 56% | Draw 21% | Barnsley 23%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 48%, Barnsley 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Barnsley's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.43 PPG, Barnsley 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Barnsley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights