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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambridge United and Wycombe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United and Wycombe finished level at 1-1 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.25 xG and Wycombe 2.43 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Wycombe landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.98 / defence 1.31 against Wycombe attack 1.56 / defence 0.99, drawn from 73/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 18% | Draw 18% | Wycombe 63%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 42%, Wycombe 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Wycombe's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wycombe arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights