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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambridge United and Wrexham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 40, as Cambridge United and Wrexham drew 2-2 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 0.83 xG and Wrexham 1.21 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cambridge United beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.81 / defence 1.12 against Wrexham attack 0.96 / defence 0.81, drawn from 85/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 25% | Draw 31% | Wrexham 44%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 39%, Wrexham 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Wrexham's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.02 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wrexham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.02 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights