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Cambridge United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stockport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United beat Stockport County 2-0 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 0.92 xG and Stockport County 1.50 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cambridge United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stockport County landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against Stockport County attack 1.06 / defence 0.82, drawn from 77/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 23% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 50%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Cambridge United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 42%, Stockport County 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.

Stockport County's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Cambridge United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights