🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Cambridge United 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Peterborough beat Cambridge United 0-1 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.39 xG and Peterborough 1.16 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cambridge United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Peterborough attack 0.91 / defence 1.25, drawn from 82/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 42% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 31%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 40%, Peterborough 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Peterborough's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Peterborough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights