Cambridge United 0-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambridge United at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambridge United vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cambridge United and Peterborough meet at Cledara Abbey Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cambridge United have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cambridge United's home record at Cledara Abbey Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Peterborough (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Peterborough arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Peterborough have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Cambridge United's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 1–6 with Peterborough winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Peterborough have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Cambridge United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 40% versus Peterborough 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 40% | Peterborough 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.39 xG and Peterborough 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.889 / defence 1.146 | Peterborough attack 0.908 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.112. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Cambridge United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 82 Cambridge United games / 81 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 42% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 31%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Peterborough 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Peterborough (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Cambridge United 50% | Peterborough 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Cledara Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 42% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Cambridge United 1.39 / Peterborough 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.889 / def 1.146 | Peterborough attack 0.908 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Peterborough xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Peterborough kick off?
Cambridge United vs Peterborough kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Peterborough?
Cambridge United 0 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Cambridge United vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Peterborough part of?
Cambridge United vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 42% chance of winning, Peterborough a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cambridge United and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Peterborough?
Record (5 meetings): Cambridge United 1W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 4W.
What form are Cambridge United and Peterborough in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Peterborough (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cambridge United's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (0.91x) against Cambridge United's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 82/81 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.61
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.55
1.16
Peterborough xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.16 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cambridge United come into this having played 82 games, going 19W 20D 43L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 1.48 PPG from 82 outings (34W 19D 29L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Peterborough carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cambridge United's home form reads 13W 11D 16L across 40 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 1.25 points per game from 40 outings (14W 8D 18L).
Attack vs Defence
Cambridge United are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.72 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 65%.
Last 82 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 19W 20D 43L in their last 82 games (0.94 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 34W 19D 29L in their last 82 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Peterborough away?
Cambridge United's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.25 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Peterborough have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 5-0 on 11 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambridge United have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cambridge United
0
Draws
5
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Peterborough?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 1, Peterborough have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambridge United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 42%, Peterborough 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Cambridge United) and 62% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 65% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Cambridge United's recent games and 62% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Peterborough tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Cambridge United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Cambridge United 0-1 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.39 xG and Peterborough 1.16 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cambridge United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Peterborough attack 0.91 / defence 1.25, drawn from 82/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 42% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 31%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 40%, Peterborough 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Peterborough's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Peterborough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.