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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambridge United and Northampton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United and Northampton finished level at 1-1 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.10 xG and Northampton 1.12 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.81 / defence 1.14 against Northampton attack 0.90 / defence 1.07, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 35% | Draw 30% | Northampton 36%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 39%, Northampton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Northampton's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambridge United 0.93 PPG, Northampton 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights