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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Exeter City defy the odds to beat Cambridge United 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Exeter City beat Cambridge United 0-1 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.46 xG and Exeter City 1.20 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cambridge United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.95 / defence 1.22 against Exeter City attack 0.84 / defence 1.16, drawn from 76/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 42% | Draw 27% | Exeter City 31%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Exeter City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 43%, Exeter City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Exeter City's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambridge United 0.91 PPG, Exeter City 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Exeter City win broke the near-deadlock. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Exeter City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights