Cambridge United 0-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambridge United at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambridge United vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cambridge United host Derby at Abbey Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Abbey Stadium, Cambridge United have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Derby — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cambridge United at 1.60 PPG versus Derby's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Cambridge United trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 53% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 53% | Derby 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.35 xG and Derby 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 1.078 / defence 1.065 | Derby attack 0.519 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.208. Data: 56 Cambridge United games / 9 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 53% | Draw 29% | Derby 18%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Derby 5.56. Cambridge United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambridge United as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambridge United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cambridge United 50% | Derby 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 53% | Draw 29% | Derby 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 36% | xG Cambridge United 1.35 / Derby 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 1.078 / def 1.065 | Derby attack 0.519 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Derby xG
36%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Derby kick off?
Cambridge United vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Derby?
Cambridge United 0 - 2 Derby.
Where is Cambridge United vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Derby part of?
Cambridge United vs Derby is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 53% chance of winning, Derby a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cambridge United and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambridge United and Derby in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Derby (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cambridge United's attack rating (1.08) and Derby's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Cambridge United's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
53%
1.89
29%
3.46
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.02
0.67
Derby xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
5%
21.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Cambridge United and 0.67 for Derby, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cambridge United's recent record stands at 20W 13D 22L from 55 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 22L across 55 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambridge United on 1.33 PPG, Derby on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cambridge United have managed 12W 7D 8L from 27 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 3W 8D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambridge United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambridge United are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 0.98 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Derby in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 20W 13D 22L in their last 55 games (1.33 PPG), while Derby have gone 18W 15D 22L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Derby away?
Cambridge United's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.59 PPG; Derby away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Cambridge United or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambridge United have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Derby in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cambridge United's record when hosting Derby specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cambridge United
1
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 0, Derby have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Cambridge United 0-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Derby see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 44%, Derby 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cambridge United) and 30% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cambridge United have failed to score in 26% of games; Derby in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 37% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cambridge United's recent games and 30% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Derby tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Derby in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cambridge United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Cambridge United 0-2 at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.35 xG and Derby 0.67 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cambridge United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Derby outscored their 0.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 1.08 / defence 1.06 against Derby attack 0.52 / defence 0.94, drawn from 56/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 53% | Draw 29% | Derby 18%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Derby win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 53%, Derby 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Derby's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambridge United 1.33 PPG, Derby 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.