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Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Cambridge United 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Cambridge United 0-1 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.07 xG and Charlton 1.29 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cambridge United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Charlton attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 31% | Draw 28% | Charlton 41%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 39%, Charlton 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Charlton's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights